If projections hold true, Barrington schools will have a few empty classrooms by 2026.
According to a recent student enrollment report, Barrington schools are projected to have about 170 fewer students in five years and more than 300 fewer students in 10 years. The district currently has 3,337 students enrolled.
The
report, which was completed by the South Carolina-based McKibben Demographics at the request of the school district, shows a progressive decrease in student enrollment in Barrington over the next decade.
The report shows that some years will have minute drops — next year, the district is projected to have three fewer students — while other years will have significant decreases — a 63-student drop is projected from the 2017-18 school year to 2018-19.
"Anything (projections) beyond four to five years and you lose reliability, as far as accuracy," said Ron Tarro, the director of administration and finance for Barrington schools.
Barrington Superintendent Michael Messore said the district was required to have a report completed on enrollment projections, adding that the information was similar to projections offered by
NESDEC (New England School Development Council).
Mr. Messore and Mr. Tarro said the decrease in student enrollment might have been more drastic if Barrington schools did not have such a strong academic reputation. The administrators said that McKibben officials recognized a sizable population increase in Barrington from the 0-to-4 years old range to the 5-to-9 years old. That increase, which is an anomaly when compared to most other towns across New England, translated as a bump due to the public schools.
"He noticed a migration of students into Barrington," said Mr. Tarro.
Still, the "migration" of students out of the district is projected to occur at a more rapid rate over the next 10 years.
The decrease is projected to occur across the different grade levels. For example, the current enrollment for grades pre-K to 3 (Sowams School, Primrose Hill and Nayatt) is 902 students districtwide. That figure is projected to drop to 869 by 2020-21, and to 827 by 2025-26.
At Hampden Meadows School, this year's enrollment of 525 students is due to drop to 480 in five years, and the middle school enrollment is expected to drop by 100 students in the next five years.
Mr. Messore said a decrease in student population can often be addressed by shifting teachers. He said this year officials recognized a drop in student population at Primrose Hill and increases at the middle school, high school and at Nayatt. Administrators reduced a teaching position at Primrose, but added personnel in other buildings.
"In some ways, it's a balance," Mr. Messore said.
The superintendent said there have been times when projections did not hold true. For example, official projections had this year's Hampden Meadows School enrollment at 509 students; Mr. Messore said there are 527 students at Hampden Meadows this year.