East Bay Movers owner Bill McKenna fills half of his 35-gallon tank with diesel fuel at Bristol Xpress on Monday, May 5. Diesel costs $4.37 per gallon.

"Gas prices suck." Warren resident and tree climber Rick Akervik spoke the words with authority Friday afternoon at the Valero station on Metacom Avenue, as he practiced his weekly ritual of pumping $30 into his pickup truck.

Like many others, he doesn't know how to come up with the extra money as gas prices rise.

"If they get any higher, I'll literally have to carpool to work," he said. "I won't let it take anything away from home. It's food before gas."

Rising gasoline prices "affect every single thing on the shelf from a small piece of gum to milk," according to Bristol XPress Convenience & Gas president Elie Karam, who predicts the regular per gallon rate will be more than $4 come July.

The rising gas prices are making it difficult for parents like Mr. Akervik and his wife, Amy, who puts $80 per week into her car, to provide for their 3- and 8-year-olds.

Many local food store and restaurant owners have raised their prices recently, since high gas prices have elevated product costs.

Warren House of Pizza manager Apostolos Zafiriadis said he raised menu prices two weeks ago because of increased fuel and flour costs. He said his food suppliers charge him $3 to $5 per delivery depending on their location.

His delivery drivers have also been affected.

"Delivery" to Warren, Bristol and Barrington "is a big part of the business," he said. "Now, customers aren't tipping because of it." On Monday, there was a "drivers wanted" sign in his shop's front window.

If Bill McKenna, owner of the Bristol-based East Bay Movers Inc. had a sign, it would likely say "Teleporter Wanted."

Business is starting to pick up for Mr. McKenna and that means more diesel fuel fill-ups for his company truck's 35-gallon tank. Mr. McKenna said he has already made slight price increases because of gas prices, but if they keep rising he will have to charge extra for fuel.

"I expect my cost to be higher every time I come to the gas station," he said, cringing at the numbers on the pump after a Monday-morning fill up.

Mr. Zafiriadis and Mr. McKenna aren't the only local business owners looking for help.

Wade Ammouri, manager of Salem's Gas and Food Mart on Main Street, said escalating prices that are out of his control have "definitely" decreased his business.

"A lot of people are just putting $10 or $20 in at a time to maybe get a better price somewhere else or on a different time or day," he said. "Not a lot are buying premium."

A lot of locals said they aren't driving as much as they used to, either.

Paul Trigo, owner of Northwind Sports in Bristol, said people are definitely riding bikes more. He said he has noticed an increase in bike rentals this year from this time last year, although he doesn't know if it's explicitly because of high gas prices.

Bristol resident Chelsea Miller said she stopped driving everywhere except to work because of high gas prices. At the bus stop Monday, she said she takes the "usually crowded" RIPTA bus, walks and rides her bike as much as possible.

Connie Mellodge of Barrington said she and her husband Jim ride their bikes into Warren to do their errands, in order to fill up less frequently.

James Everett, 65, of Warren, rides his bike into Barrington to do his food shopping. He said he gets a ride from his son, Daniel, when he needs it, but gives him a couple bucks for gas because "it's only fair."

Outlook

Many variables influence gasoline prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world-market value of crude oil, from which gasoline and diesel fuel are derived, is the biggest factor.

In its report projecting the gasoline market for spring 2008, the EIA said crude prices will continue to rise and, therefore, so will gasoline prices. However, it said supply and demand may change in ways that could combat the effects of rising crude oil prices.

EIA official Neil Gamson said continued expansion of U.S. refineries will increase the domestic crude oil supply. He said there may also be a decrease in demand, which is unusual since the population is increasing. Both, he said, would help keep gasoline prices in check.

"There's pressure now. Companies feel they can make money in the long term if they can make the refineries they have now more efficient and continue to expand," he said.

Mr. Gamson said the expected increased supply of gasoline abroad, particularly in Europe, where people are turning more toward smart cars and diesel vehicles may also steady prices.

A gallon of Regular-grade gasoline averaged $3.61 in New England this week, the area's all-time high.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), record crude oil prices will continue pushing gasoline prices to record levels. The top factors in determining gas prices include:

* The world-market value of crude oil, from which gasoline and diesel fuel are refined.

* The relationship between gasoline supply — production and net imports — and seasonal demand; spring is typically the busiest driving season. With high supply and low demand come decreased prices and visa versa.

* The trend of ethanol use, which increases the gasoline supply.

* The increase in refinery outages in the United States and, therefore, import increases since 2007.

* The value of the U.S. dollar in the world market, relative to importing costs.

* Economy influences, like state taxes and land and rent cost for gas stations.

* A community's proximity to refineries.

Here are the components paid for in a gallon of gas as of March 2008, according to the EIA:

Federal and state taxes: 12 percent

Distributing and marketing costs and profits: 8 percent

Refining costs and profits: 8 percent

Crude oil: 72 percent

By Jeremy Rosen

jrosen@eastbaynewspapers.com