New report: Student enrollment on the rise in Barrington

NESDEC projection: 200 more students in next 10 years

By Josh Bickford
Posted 1/3/17

Recently released data shows that Barrington schools are expected to see an increase in student population over the next 10 years.

According to an enrollment report shared at the Dec. 15 school …

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New report: Student enrollment on the rise in Barrington

NESDEC projection: 200 more students in next 10 years

Posted

Recently released data shows that Barrington schools are expected to see an increase in student population over the next 10 years.

According to an enrollment report shared at the Dec. 15 school committee meeting, local schools are expected to see an increase of 200 students during the next decade — going from the current enrollment of 3,344 to 3,544 by the 2026-27 school year. The information was provided by the New England School Development Council, which specializes on student population projects.

Previous report showed drop in enrollment.

"There are several assumptions used when NESDEC is preparing projections such as birth rates, demands on housing market, short term economic conditions and changes in the interest rates," stated the report. "Furthermore, projections beyond five years become less reliable as other factors can influence enrollment."

The report focused some attention on housing developments in Barrington either under construction or currently being planned. It listed six developments, ranging from the former Zion Bible College property which is slated to become an age-in-place facility, to the Palmer Pointe project. While the Zion Bible College property is not expected to add any students to local schools, the five other developments are projected to bring about 86 more students to Barrington. 

The construction of a new middle school in town — voters at the Nov. 8 election approved a bond not to exceed $86.4 million for a new middle school — will also likely be a factor in the projected student enrollment increase. Officials have stated that new schools often attract more students. 

In addition, research specialists have stated that Barrington has a unique "in-migration" of families from year-to-year, even when overall trends reflect student population decreases.

Steady student enrollment increases are expected at the pre-K to Grade 3 level over the next four years. Currently there are 897 students in that grade range. That number increases to 1,022 in 10 years.

The recent report also included historical enrollment data for the district. Over the last 10 years, Barrington schools enrollment dropped from 3,477 in 2006-07 to 3,344 this year. The student population was at its lowest point during the 2014-15 school year when there was 3,264 students in the district.

Enrollment shift?

The recent report appears to run in contrast to information the district shared less than a year ago. 

Last June it was reported that Barrington schools were projected to have about 300 fewer students in 10 years. That data was provided by South Carolina-based McKibben Demographics, which had been hired by the district to conduct the enrollment student research.

The earlier report showed that some years would have small drops — next year, the district was projected to have three fewer students — while other years would have significant decreases — a 63-student drop was projected from the 2017-18 school year to 2018-19. 

The recent report shows that student population is now expected to increase by 20 students next year, then drop by 23 students the following year. After that, student enrollment is projected to have a steady increase each of the next eight years. 

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A lifelong Portsmouth resident, Jim graduated from Portsmouth High School in 1982 and earned a journalism degree from the University of Rhode Island in 1986. He's worked two different stints at East Bay Newspapers, for a total of 18 years with the company so far. When not running all over town bringing you the news from Portsmouth, Jim listens to lots and lots and lots of music, watches obscure silent films from the '20s and usually has three books going at once. He also loves to cook crazy New Orleans dishes for his wife of 25 years, Michelle, and their two sons, Jake and Max.